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AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby blinddrew » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:51 pm

James Perrett wrote:
Pete Kaine wrote:...although people were saying we were were in a bull market for too long at the start of the year and the bubble was long overdue for a burst, right now I really don't know what to think.

People have been saying exactly the same thing for at least the last 4 years. Trying to time the market is a mugs game. There's a saying I've seen that goes something like "Time in the market is better than timing the market".
It's only in the last two decades that there's been a period of 10 years that hasn't seen market growth. We'd recovered from that a couple of years ago, it'll be interesting to see what happens. But in general the longer you're invested, the better your return; it's why it's so important to get a pension fund going early. The returns might not be so great but they do stack up.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:42 am

Right now is NOT a time to be holding stocks. The Fed and the other central banks are pumping QE money into the market and they are even buying company bonds! That is ridiculous. All they are doing by doing that is to prop up zombie companies like Avid that in a genuinely free market would have gone to the wall ages ago.

As for pension funds - if the government and/or an employer is matching funds and adding substantially to that fund, that's great - never turn down free money!

BUT if you are saving all on your own and putting that money in some kind of fund, all you are doing is giving that money to the fund managers and his/her buddies to share between them. After a few decades, they'll give you some of that money back. (And of course, if you break off the scheme prematurely, they are especially happy as that means they give you nothing or only a tiny fraction of it back!)

We are now well into bubble territory! There are companies out there that are out-and-out frauds. Companies that are being traded as public companies that have not even sold one nickel's worth of goods or services - and people are buying shares in them! Nikola went from $10 to $60 in two months - that's a truck manufacturer valued at $25 BILLION that has no factory and has not sold one single solitary truck and has no intention of selling any trucks anytime soon!

The news coming across my desk just gets crazier and crazier - and worse by the day!

Yesterday, it was Wirecard. Today? Tomorrow?
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:55 pm

Wow. Up to $9.25 today.

Q2 revenue is down relative to last year, but higher than expected.
Subscriptions up 65% at $16.4M

So the stock surges up 10%.

I have to admit that I regret being out for this cycle of the swing. But I have to stick with my plan.

It was trading at $5 in the middle of May and I was tempted. That would have been a return (if you sell today) of about 85% in 3 months.

The analysts don't seem to know what the company is worth, so there is a lot of slop in their valuation. Then when some big data input comes, the price changes drastically. But the error in the valuation is still large, so it can't sustain the new price level, and the cycle repeats.

Meanwhile, subscriptions keep going up, now at an accelerating pace. That causes some investors to keep getting in for the long haul which sustains the price enough to keep the cycles going. They assume that the price will eventually stabilize at a higher level. But rather than that actually happening, it does supply enough liquidity to keep the cycle going.

It's like a roller coaster with those pull chains every so often to pull you up the next big hill to sustain the coaster and keep it going.
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