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AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby blinddrew » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:51 pm

James Perrett wrote:
Pete Kaine wrote:...although people were saying we were were in a bull market for too long at the start of the year and the bubble was long overdue for a burst, right now I really don't know what to think.

People have been saying exactly the same thing for at least the last 4 years. Trying to time the market is a mugs game. There's a saying I've seen that goes something like "Time in the market is better than timing the market".
It's only in the last two decades that there's been a period of 10 years that hasn't seen market growth. We'd recovered from that a couple of years ago, it'll be interesting to see what happens. But in general the longer you're invested, the better your return; it's why it's so important to get a pension fund going early. The returns might not be so great but they do stack up.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:42 am

Right now is NOT a time to be holding stocks. The Fed and the other central banks are pumping QE money into the market and they are even buying company bonds! That is ridiculous. All they are doing by doing that is to prop up zombie companies like Avid that in a genuinely free market would have gone to the wall ages ago.

As for pension funds - if the government and/or an employer is matching funds and adding substantially to that fund, that's great - never turn down free money!

BUT if you are saving all on your own and putting that money in some kind of fund, all you are doing is giving that money to the fund managers and his/her buddies to share between them. After a few decades, they'll give you some of that money back. (And of course, if you break off the scheme prematurely, they are especially happy as that means they give you nothing or only a tiny fraction of it back!)

We are now well into bubble territory! There are companies out there that are out-and-out frauds. Companies that are being traded as public companies that have not even sold one nickel's worth of goods or services - and people are buying shares in them! Nikola went from $10 to $60 in two months - that's a truck manufacturer valued at $25 BILLION that has no factory and has not sold one single solitary truck and has no intention of selling any trucks anytime soon!

The news coming across my desk just gets crazier and crazier - and worse by the day!

Yesterday, it was Wirecard. Today? Tomorrow?
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:55 pm

Wow. Up to $9.25 today.

Q2 revenue is down relative to last year, but higher than expected.
Subscriptions up 65% at $16.4M

So the stock surges up 10%.

I have to admit that I regret being out for this cycle of the swing. But I have to stick with my plan.

It was trading at $5 in the middle of May and I was tempted. That would have been a return (if you sell today) of about 85% in 3 months.

The analysts don't seem to know what the company is worth, so there is a lot of slop in their valuation. Then when some big data input comes, the price changes drastically. But the error in the valuation is still large, so it can't sustain the new price level, and the cycle repeats.

Meanwhile, subscriptions keep going up, now at an accelerating pace. That causes some investors to keep getting in for the long haul which sustains the price enough to keep the cycles going. They assume that the price will eventually stabilize at a higher level. But rather than that actually happening, it does supply enough liquidity to keep the cycle going.

It's like a roller coaster with those pull chains every so often to pull you up the next big hill to sustain the coaster and keep it going.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:46 pm

Roller coaster full steam going down the big hill.

Linearly straight down by 18% after the last peak 15 days ago.

Wheeeeeee


I am still out. Hope that some of you shorted it at that last peak.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:15 am

I remain very bearish about Avid Tech simply because liabilities exceed assets by over 50%. In other words, it is a fundamentally unsound company. It remains of course an excellent swing-trade as it is twice as volatile as other techs - and heaven knows they are volatile enough as it is!

The price is being pushed by one solitary trader at Impactive Capital LP, a NY 'woke' fund that lists ESG considerations (No, I had to Google that one as well - environmental, social and governance issues) and I am less than sanguine as to their ability to understand the audio/video post-prod market.

But being 'woke' attracts the idiot-money!

The market is awash with silly QE money. Retail gamblers (I can't seriously call them 'investors' as their only function is to lose money!) are giving investment funds their stimulus cheques and all that crazy money has to go somewhere. Add to that, the Fed is buying company bonds left, right and centre and you have a classic bubble. Warren Buffett's tide will soon be going out and we can then all point and laugh!

Kewl Dude told me "They're buying anything and everything. They'll buy the gum stuck to your shoe next!"

Kewl Dude and Blum are almost totally out, having both once been the largest shareholders, buying in at $3.50 and c.a. $5 respectively. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs bought $24m, giving them 6.6% of the company - but I doubt that is a serious investment strategy and more a case of spreading their bets.

Since 2019, R&D in most post-prod AV tech has slowed right down - with the notable exception of DaVinci-Resolve plus all the new hardware coming from Black Magic Design. While Adobe, Avid, Magix and others have been changing the GUI and adding plug-ins no-one really wants or needs, Grant Petty who owns over one-third of BMD is getting ready for an IPO sometime next year. That could prove an interesting stock.

The latest Media Composer release was, to be brutally honest, embarrassing. I felt sorry for the poor saps demo'ing having to pretend that new colours and looking just like Vegas was 'new and exciting!'

All this loose talk of increased subscription revenues (from F-all to a bit more than F-all) is a poor recompense for the blindingly obvious - revenues are down 11% year-on-year!

They are long since in default of the covenants on their massive debts to Cerberus Captital and one telephone call is all it would take to pull the plug and tell the Fat Lady to waddle on stage and give it full-wellie!
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:25 am

While on the subject of unexplainable companies, I would like to consider the company LYFT.

Every year, the revenue increases, and the earnings become more and more negative.

The investors are simply directly subsidizing the under-priced rides. So it will continue as long as people are willing to do that.

Lets say the true cost of a ride is $50. LYFT charges $30 and the investor foots the bill for $20.

The rider figures, gosh if they are giving away free money, I might as well get some.

But as this continues the stock simply drops and drops, and will eventually hit 0.

So why would anybody stay in?


Please short LYFT and make money. This is not a stock tip. It's like making a prediction that if you let go of a brick, it will fall to the floor.

If people are going to be stupid, you should at least take their money.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:24 am

AVID stock trading around 8.9 today.

I have no position. Just watching.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:49 pm

Wow 12% jump up after earnings report.

They appear to be making a real effort to achieve sustainable profitability, and reduce debt. And the market seems to anticipate that they might be able to do it.

At this point, I am trying to calculate what I think the stock is actually worth, assuming they are a sustainable, profitable company.

Assuming AVID was sustainable going forward, what would its stock be worth? $12? $15? $6?

I don't think that the PE ratio means anything here since the PE ratio is out of whack when the earnings hover near zero.

If we can't decide what the stock is worth, it will continue to be very volatile. In that case, the best strategy is just to buy on the dips, sell when you beat the market, and be happy.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:14 pm

The whole stock market is going to crash horribly sometime soon. It could be tomorrow, it could be in a few week's time or next year. But crash it must.

Think of Swiss Franken or Gold or Silver. The last thing I'd want to own is a zombie company.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby James Perrett » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:57 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:The whole stock market is going to crash horribly sometime soon. It could be tomorrow, it could be in a few week's time or next year. But crash it must.

I've been hearing that for the last 4 years - we've had a few wobbles in that time but the worldwide markets keep going up. The UK hasn't been very spectacular though and I wouldn't try to time the market - just hold tight and things will recover eventually.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:22 am

Focusright (TUNE) is up to 970 (GBp) today, and has essentially doubled since March of this year and is up 365% over the last 3.5 years.

TUNE vs AVID is an interesting comparison.

It seems that the stock market sees Focusright as a better investment than AVID, so this is reflected in its price. TUNE is actually trading with 10x more volume (by dollar) than AVID is.

These stocks are so different in the way that they are traded, but also are in the same market, I need to work out a way to trade them together to make for a good combination.

If anyone has any good ideas of how to trade these together that would be interesting.

My basic hypothesis is that AVID will remain highly volatile. TUNE will be much less volatile. Their market is similar so if an event happens in the market it would effect them both similarly.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:18 pm

Nobody cares about what branch a company is in. Some make a profit and some are loss-making zombie basket cases.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby ManFromGlass » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:57 pm

I’m thinking gold doubloons, unless I find a crystal ball that works.
:tongue:
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:04 am

The Red Bladder wrote:Nobody cares about what branch a company is in. Some make a profit and some are loss-making zombie basket cases.

If a publicly traded company is a loss making zombie and overpriced, then you can short it and do much better than the market.

For example, a short position on LYFT at their IPO has made 300% return in 1.5 years. Those who had the insight that the LYFT business plan was flawed did very well indeed.

AVID is different since it goes up AND down. It is actually more interesting to trade. And yes it can be timed as this thread shows.

Doing better than 'Buy and Hold' is the goal of trading. There is a rhythm to the market once you get the feel for it.

I appreciate the observation that AVID is a zombie. That means it has unique opportunities for trading, which can result in very good returns, even higher returns than buy and hold of a profitable company during the same period.
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Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:06 am

ManFromGlass wrote:I’m thinking gold doubloons, unless I find a crystal ball that works.
:tongue:

You don't need a crystal ball to know when the downbeat of the next measure is going to be. If you understand the rhythm behind the market you can do well without a crystal ball. :)
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