You are here

AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Advice on everything from getting your music heard to setting up a label and royalties.

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Tue May 21, 2019 5:19 pm

One full-time member of Team Bladder here at Bladder Towers uses PT and she is in her 30s.

One part-time member of Team Bladder is a devoted PT user and he is in his 20's (just).
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2558
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby johnny h » Tue May 21, 2019 6:22 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:
johnny h wrote:I'm not saying Pro Tools is done, but the advantages it offers are declining year on year against competing (and much cheaper) systems.

I completely agree... but your original claim was that no one under 40 uses it... which is clearly not the case and something you appear to be backtracking on by making similarly contentious tangential assertions. :D
What I actually said was most (and certainly not all!) people I have met on my travels who still use pro tools are over 40. This is my personal experience and I simply posed a question about whether PT is still as relevant for younger people - a question that seems to have been taken the wrong way for some reason.

I very much stand by my point about the futility of 99% of “music tech” courses.
johnny h
Jedi Poster
Posts: 4020
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:00 am

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu May 30, 2019 11:50 am

Warning (if you are holding Avid shares) - Funky Dude has sold well over half his holdings in Avid at an average of $8.50 a share and maybe still selling some more in the days to come.
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2558
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:15 am

Here we go again.

Stock has been trading upward almost to $10/share.

No insiders cashing out.

Market is waiting for (anticipating) next earnings report to see if they are going to continue to be profitable.

Hopefully you stayed in last time. I cashed half out on the spike and kept the other half in.

The second spike should be considerably higher. Or just stay in as the stock resets to a new price point for a profitable company.

All they have to do is break even and it would send the right signal to the market. They already described that the 2nd quarter is always the worst.
User avatar
DC-Choppah
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1586
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:00 am
Location: MD, USA

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:28 am

Stock price seems happy lately at around $10.

Earnings come out Monday 5 Aug after market close.

Anybody in?

Looks like the analysts think it will be about $0 earnings per share or negative. If earnings are positive the price will spike up like last time, probably more since it would confirm that they are serious about becoming profitable.

You can tell that it is looking for a reason to go up.
User avatar
DC-Choppah
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1586
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:00 am
Location: MD, USA

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby Forum Admin » Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:32 am

DC-Choppah wrote:If earnings are positive the price will spike up like last time, probably more since it would confirm that they are serious about becoming profitable.

Not speaking here about AVID stock, but that comment does not always apply.

Example? Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) posted positive profits this week for the last 6 months' period and even declared a dividend that will pay the UK treasury* back around £1 Billion GBP (in the previous 6 months they had paid the same) yet their stock dropped by 6% or so. Go figure?

* For those not aware, RBS was bailed out by us, the UK taxpayers -- commonly referred to as "the Treasury" ;-)
User avatar
Forum Admin
Moderator
Posts: 3393
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 11:00 pm
Location: A studio deep in the fenlands of Cambridgeshire, UK
SEARCH 11,489 SOS Reviews/Techniques articles: www.soundonsound.com/search

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby blinddrew » Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:35 am

It's all about whether those results have been priced in by the market already.
You'll also frequently get a post-dividend drop as people who have just been holding on for the pay-out then sell up - if that's lots of people then you'll start to see a fall.
But it's mostly about expectations.
User avatar
blinddrew
Jedi Poster
Posts: 11301
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:00 am
Location: York
Ignore the post count, I have no idea what I'm doing...

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby Forum Admin » Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:49 am

blinddrew wrote:It's all about whether those results have been priced in by the market already.
You'll also frequently get a post-dividend drop as people who have just been holding on for the pay-out then sell up - if that's lots of people then you'll start to see a fall.
But it's mostly about expectations.

Now that makes perfect sense to me. Thanks Drew. :thumbup:
User avatar
Forum Admin
Moderator
Posts: 3393
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 11:00 pm
Location: A studio deep in the fenlands of Cambridgeshire, UK
SEARCH 11,489 SOS Reviews/Techniques articles: www.soundonsound.com/search

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby blinddrew » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:08 am

Forum Admin wrote:
blinddrew wrote:It's all about whether those results have been priced in by the market already.
You'll also frequently get a post-dividend drop as people who have just been holding on for the pay-out then sell up - if that's lots of people then you'll start to see a fall.
But it's mostly about expectations.

Now that makes perfect sense to me.
In which case it's almost certainly wrong! :D
User avatar
blinddrew
Jedi Poster
Posts: 11301
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:00 am
Location: York
Ignore the post count, I have no idea what I'm doing...

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:40 am

The RBS: ‘Given current market conditions, continued economic and political uncertainty and the contraction of the yield curve, it is very unlikely that we will achieve our target return on tangible equity of more than 12% and cost-income ratio of less than 50% in 2020,’


https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade ... rge-190802:

'The news led to the lender’s share price tumbling more than 6% to 203p as of 14::10 GMT on Friday, despite the bank unveiling a strong set of half-year results on the same day.'


So what that means is that the return on equity that they said they would make before, they are now saying they won't make. The financial markets have to respond to that by adjusting the price per share downwards.

Avid on the other can simply make the numbers it said it would in the last earnings call, and that would cause the stock to go up since it means the guys in charge may actually know what they are doing.

Financial markets reward people for being predictable. They don't like surprises one way or the other. As you be come more predictable, your value goes up because it becomes a known quantity.

Avid is still an unknown quantity. That is what makes it interesting as a stock actually.
User avatar
DC-Choppah
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1586
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:00 am
Location: MD, USA

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:17 pm

The Q2 results were in on Monday and were not disastrous - but the $10+ share price was a bubble based on wild hopes and dreams of revenues to come and these didn't happen. Revenue in the second quarter was essentially flat at $98.7 million, missing the consensus estimate of $101.3 million in sales. Avid's guidance called for $97 million to $105 million in Q2 sales. E-commerce revenue increased 19% and recurring revenue accounted for 58% of sales on a trailing-12-month basis. That all translated into adjusted earnings per share of $0.02 and not the $0.04 per share in adjusted profits that analysts were expecting.

And prior to the results for Q2, the share price closed at a nervous $9.68. Then came those results and it opened at $8.15 and by the end of play, the referee blew the whistle at $6.13.

So mildly disappointing results, continued losses and a sideways drift (i.e. normality!) has been resumed. Right now the share price is bouncing off a $6.50 low, so it looks as if all those who wanted to sell-off have done so and the rest are holding for now at least.

Avid has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets) and this is a more serious situation than just having a high debt level. Avid's debt level continues to increase and is not properly covered by operating cash flow (it is at 9%, i.e. less than a healthy 20% of total debt).

In short, Avid is making a loss, thereby endangering interest payments which are not properly covered by earnings. There is a covenant on those debts of about $300m that could, in theory, trigger a collapse or a take-over.

Anyway - people have been predicting the imminent demise of Avid for about ten years and the company is still here and still trading. The question I must ask is - is Avid a zombie company or a cockroach company? In other words, is it the walking dead or is it just unkillable?
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2558
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:44 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:Revenue in the second quarter was essentially flat at $98.7 million, missing the consensus estimate of $101.3 million in sales. Avid's guidance called for $97 million to $105 million in Q2 sales. E-commerce revenue increased 19% and recurring revenue accounted for 58% of sales on a trailing-12-month basis. That all translated into adjusted earnings per share of $0.02 and not the $0.04 per share in adjusted profits that analysts were expecting.

That just means the 'analysts' were wrong and AVID did what they said they would. The difference was a small amount, but since the EPS was so close to break even ($.02) it registered to some analysts as -50% earnings surprise which some trades use as an indicator.

I guess that means if the balance sheet was just slightly different and the EPS came in instead at say $.005 that the analysts would have called that a -400% earnings surprise?!? of course that makes no sense since it is a small difference in earnings.

Those EPS surprise numbers don't make any sense when the earnings are right near break even.


No matter. My stops were hit right away as soon as it started to fall so I locked in my profits. Then when the stock hit bottom I bought it up at $6 /share since I knew folks would figure out this trading indicator error. There is nothing different about the AVID picture than before.

Up about 8% today.

It will be fun to watch it go back up again before the next round of earnings.

This is why trading these kinds of stocks is fun because the 'analysts' don't know what they are doing. Their standard tools don't work and make for lots of opportunities like this.

See you next time!
User avatar
DC-Choppah
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1586
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:00 am
Location: MD, USA

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby The Red Bladder » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:11 pm

You are (IMO) definitely dealing with Avid stock in the right way - it's a swing trade and not a 'hold'.

However -
DC-Choppah wrote: There is nothing different about the AVID picture than before.
Oh yes, there is! Debt is increasing steadily and exceeds market cap. Add to that $84m in piled-up physical assets and unsold inventory.
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2558
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby Zukan » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:09 am

Interesting thread.
User avatar
Zukan
Moderator
Posts: 8972
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:00 am

Re: AVID stock is ready to go up?!?

Postby DC-Choppah » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:44 pm

Weeeeeee

This is a fun stock.

Went way up 13.5% today after they simply announced that they were on track and software subscriptions are increasing.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/430448 ... quote_news

Hope some of you guys were in.

I bought in big at $6 after last earnings call drop and made 29% profit in one quarter. I am holding half until after next earnings call to lock in those profits.

Set your limits and stops in a good place to capture the next big spike if you missed this one.

Will be interesting to see how folks buy in and the price goes up over the next few months. Today's big spike in price will attract some new traders where this stock starts to appear on their radar. The stock has been trading very thinly recently but now will grab trader's attention.

The more new investors pile in over the next quarter and drive the price up, the harder it will fall if it drops.

So you have to use your judgement to decide if you should go long or short for the next one. I think they will do OK next time so I am long.

Who says there's no money in music?
User avatar
DC-Choppah
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1586
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:00 am
Location: MD, USA

PreviousNext