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Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby shufflebeat » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:05 pm

shufflebeat wrote:
The Red Bladder wrote:And whilst I'm here and you are all indignant about me being 'heartless' and 'setting the wrong tone'...

You're not being heartless, you're just wrong in your previous statement in bold.

FTFM (oops).
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby James Perrett » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:48 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:
C19 will kill a few thousand.
...
Every year some 10,000 to 20,000 die from the flu in the UK. Where's the panic?

Have you read the Imperial College paper that caused Johnson to change his mind? If you haven't you can find it at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Their modelling suggested we would see 250,00 deaths in this country if we carried on with the measures introduced last week and didn't do what we are trying to do now.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby CS70 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:41 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:Governments around the world are being stampeded into over-reaction by media over-hype and the over-reaction by generation snowflake.

I've just had C19 and it is nothing! Most people will not even realise that they've got it or just assume that they caught a bit of a cold or that they are hung-over from a wild night with a scarlet-woman from Grimsby.

I've taken dumps that were more life-threatening than this rubbish!

Every year some 10,000 to 20,000 die from the flu in the UK. Where's the panic?

One-third of all children aged eleven are morbidly obese. Where's the panic?

This is pure BS.

Let me spell it once again for you.

Yes, the virus is a mild sickness. It seem to have a relatively small mortality rate among the infected people. Only a few percent die once infected and many experience only mild discomfort.

The problem is that nobody has immunity. So the potentially infected population is everybody.

That means that even a small mortality rate leads to huge numbers of deaths if the infection spreads (4% mortality rate for 65 million people is 2,6 million. Influenza affects about say 15% of the population, with a mortality rate of about 2% for the same 65 million you get 390.000 deaths. Even if the rates are a little wrong, it's a massive difference).

And that's just the yearly average.

Alas, timing matters. If the virus is left unchecked people would not get it nicely and uniformly spread over a few months - like for influenza - but a lot of people would get it very quickly since nobody's immune. Alas, also the contagion rate seems very high, which compounds the problem. That means that "one go" would be a matter of days or two-three weeks max - leaving medical services totally overwhelmed for both the huge number of Covid patients and everybody else.

So yes, it is a mild sickness, as you have experienced. But since it spreads quickly and affects everybody, and everybody is a lot of people, the consequences would be huge if the virus were to be left unchecked.

The good thing is that we know there's a clear exit - either a containment in the short term, or a vaccine in the longer term (a year or more).

Not surprisingly, governments are aiming to the quickest solution - a containment: hence the lockdowns. The question is not whether or not the lockdowns are wise, is whether or not the form of lockdown practiced by most countries is strict enough to produce containment.

A real risk is that half-hearted measures hurt the economy but produce no benefit.

That's why the action taken are perfectly justified, not because governments around all countries are idiots and you are the only one who knows best.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby The Red Bladder » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:12 pm

When politicians and civil servants make decisions, they often (some would say nearly always!) do so on the basis of a misunderstanding of the facts, leading to deadly use of fallacies.

For example, they largely still believe in the trickle-down effect, when the reality is a percolate-up effect - and we have had some ten years of austerity based on the austerity fallacy.

Everything you (CS70) have written displays a lack of understanding for statistical analysis. Firstly, viruses run out of 'victims' at about 60% of population immunity, aka 'herd immunity'. So the total infection target is not everybody, but about two thirds, or about 40m people.

For example, The Black Death died down and seemed to stop once about two-thirds of a population had been infected. (And that was a particularly nasty haemorrhagic illness of the 'Filoviridae' family that had an incubation period without symptoms of about 10 - 14 days, during which the patient could infect others.)

Secondly, in the statistical analysis of infections, there is a world of a difference between 'OF' and 'WITH'. Using 'OF' when 'WITH' is the case, is an example of 'False Causality'. In the UK, some 20-30 thousand die every year WITH the flu. But only 5 to 10 thousand die OF the flu - and even then, influenza nearly always needs a buddy to help it, such as bacteria, existing heart problems or other viruses.

If we look at who is dying of C19, we see a distinct correlation between age and deaths in which C19 has been detected -

Image

And the data tells us that C19, like the flu and other coronaviruses, it needs a buddy to be deadly. It needs an 'underlying health problem' to help it to kill (AKA co-morbidity).

Fewer than 1% of deaths related to C19 in China were without an underlying health issue.

There is a dangerous exception to this 'underlying health problem' scenario - and that is, if the patient is exposed to a massive infective influx of the virus, it has less time to build up immunity and kill the virus.

Just as a hand-full of virus cells will never be able to multiply sufficiently to reach 'infections' status, a massive dose of C19 can reach 'infection' status BEFORE the body's immune system has had a chance to develop enough white blood cells that can combat this virus. It is in effect 'out-gunned'!

(On a side-note, these cells that kill viruses and cancer cells have the totally funky name 'Natural Killer' cells. Oh would that all human biology were that hip!)

BUT

The fact that a massive dose of a virus can kill simply by swamping and out-gunning the immune system means that perfectly healthy doctors and nurses are at risk of death.

That makes the current UK government guidelines for health staff that they only need to wear gloves and a paper face-mask especially insidious. Were I a doctor or a nurse and they told me that, I would tell them to F-off.

"If you think it's safe, then you go in there with just gloves and face mask and start pushing tubes down throats!"
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:03 pm

I'm sure you're quite right RB. The doctors and nurses really should all just stay at home until a very large stock of PPE is manufactured and delivered. It doesn't matter at all that the weaklings and grannies suffocate to death -- they would all have died sooner or later anyway, after all. Far more important that we save the economy for the superfit to inherit -- all those who can shrug this namby-pamby virus off like it's nothing more than a mild cold....

:beamup: :crazy: :madas:
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby CS70 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:49 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:Everything you (CS70) have written displays a lack of understanding for statistical analysis. Firstly, viruses run out of 'victims' at about 60% of population immunity, aka 'herd immunity'.

Right, I forgot that we're all idiots (WHO and prominent epidemiologists included of course) and all having a lack of statistical analysis.

Let me guess, you are the only one who doesn't.

So the total infection target is not everybody, but about two thirds, or about 40m people.

More BS. We don't know. This is a *novel* coronavirus. Emphasis on novel. The immunological response is far from clear. There are indications that you can indeed catch it again after a short time, but it would be foolish and arrogant to claim one way or the other.

But I forgot: you know everything, so probably you also know that.

Besides: even it were the case (but _we don't know_) 4% of 40 million people all at the same time is still a lot of people. All within a few weeks. Does the dime drop?

For example, The Black Death died down and seemed to stop once about two-thirds of a population had been infected. (And that was a particularly nasty haemorrhagic illness of the 'Filoviridae' family that had an incubation period without symptoms of about 10 - 14 days, during which the patient could infect others.)

Right, now you take the Black Death as good example of letting a virus run its course.

I thought the pubs were closed in the UK?

Secondly, in the statistical analysis of infections, there is a world of a difference between 'OF' and 'WITH'. Using 'OF' when 'WITH' is the case, is an example of 'False Causality'. In the UK, some 20-30 thousand die every year WITH the flu. But only 5 to 10 thousand die OF the flu - and even then, influenza nearly always needs a buddy to help it, such as bacteria, existing heart problems or other viruses.

If you come down from your pedestal a moment, you would notice that I accounted for that. But of course you are the only one in the world to have heard of the difference between causality and correlation. Because everyone else is, of course, and idiot - including the fellas at the WHO. How could I have forgotten.

It's surprising they haven't awarded you the Nobel prize in.. well, in something, I guess. I suspect you're surprised as well.

The next bit I is meaningless, for reason which is frankly too much effort to take up here - I cannot care less to debate with you.

What I care for is that BS like what you wrote does not go unchallenged.

It may undermine some poor sod's vague understanding of the situation and contribute to him or her to take risks.. not so much with themselves (natural selection, you ask me) but with other innocent people.

Your hyperbolic arguments are normally mildly amusing, but this no moment for jokes.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby blinddrew » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:15 pm

And let's all step away from the microphone for a bit and take a few deep breaths.

Unless you're actually infected and don't have fully functioning lungs of course...
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby shufflebeat » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:24 pm

The Angry Nog wrote:Right, now you take the Black Death as good example of letting a virus run its course.

I thought the pubs were closed in the UK?

:)

Or should that be...

:(
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby The Red Bladder » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:27 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote: It doesn't matter at all that the weaklings and grannies suffocate to death -- they would all have died sooner or later anyway,
I posted in the vainglorious hope that you and everyone else takes the economic effects of this infection seriously.

As I will be 70 this year, the health effects are very much on my mind - and I am certainly not advocating that we abandon the old and the sick! My comment about doctors and nurses was to highlight just how totally unprepared the NHS is for anything.

But the economic effects will be far more deadly in the long run!

Making silly snide comments does little to advance the discussion about the depression and the wholesale fall in living standards that may easily engulf the world.

The CDO crisis of 2007 and the subsequent banking crisis of 2008 was just the overture. This one is the fat lady walking on stage!
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:35 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:I posted in the vainglorious hope that you and everyone else takes the economic effects of this infection seriously.

How could anyone not? We are potentially looking at a whole new world here... The fact that governments all over the world are putting in place extraordinary facilities to support businesses and workers really says it all. Maybe it will all serve as the long overdue shakeup we've been needing... Perhaps modern economics are not fit for purpose? Time will tell.

However, trivialising the seriousness of the infection for some, and suggesting the medics all down tools is just crass. And we all know the projected numbers... no one needs reminding. It is the likely timescale that is the immediate problem. No one wants to be put in the position of denying someone, or of being denied, treatment because of a lack of resources, but that's the reality all over the world.

My comment about doctors and nurses was to highlight just how totally unprepared the NHS is for anything.

Again, nothing new there. Although to be fair, no one can magic up hundreds of thousands of new PPE kits or thousands of respirators overnight. Should they have anticipated and built up stocks earlier? Possibly... but hindsight is of no help now.

H
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby blinddrew » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:54 pm

My hope is that this will lead to a general resetting of our society and:
a better understanding of the need for real contingency planning (with financial and stock management to support it),
a better understanding of the real value of the work that people do,
a return to respecting science, rigour and expertise,
a shift away from using money as the only metric for everything a society does,
and a global solution for writing off the huge debt that will be racked up by every country over the next few months / years.

My fear is that we'll get:
lots of handwringing,
grandstanding and posturing from politicians,
lots of lobbying from those who still benefit from the status quo,
a bunch of white papers that just sit on a shelf,
no significant change,
a near identical collapse in another ten years.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:57 pm

I share your hopes for the first list, but despair we'll get the second, too...
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby IAA » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:00 pm

My son (an Acute respiratory charge nurse at the sharpest of ends) says they have had no problems with PPE supply. It is not the same universally across the NHS For sure, but it is not the case the NHS is totally unprepared. I’ve never seen such an NHS reconfiguration on the scale of what’s happening now.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby Arpangel » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:09 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:I'm sure you're quite right RB. The doctors and nurses really should all just stay at home until a very large stock of PPE is manufactured and delivered. It doesn't matter at all that the weaklings and grannies suffocate to death -- they would all have died sooner or later anyway, after all. Far more important that we save the economy for the superfit to inherit -- all those who can shrug this namby-pamby virus off like it's nothing more than a mild cold....

:beamup: :crazy: :madas:

The super fit, and the young, well, they’ve not shown us the ability to run things any better than previous generations, in fact, I think nature has had enough, we’ve been nothing but trouble since we’ve been here, it’s shrugging us off like fleas from a dogs back.
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Re: Impact of C-virus on music business - musos, venues, and supporting folks

Postby Arpangel » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:this one is the fat lady walking on stage!

And she’s just about to sing.
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