You are here

COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Advice on everything from getting your music heard to setting up a label and royalties.

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:25 pm

I think the struggle will be to persuade the general public to maintain the isolation measures for long enough. We're seeing the hospitalisations now of people infected 3-4 weeks ago, and the deaths of people infected 5-6 weeks ago. The lockdown isolations only really started a couple of weeks ago, so we have to wait another month before we will see any real evidence of whether it has worked ...or not.

And whatever happens, the economy is trashed and will take a decade or more to recover. But just maybe the damage will be so great that everyone will re-evaluate what matters and how we can find a better way to do things that's less focused on making money for a few and more on living life well for all.
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27118
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby desmond » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:32 pm

It's one hell of a social experiment, for sure. It seems the British public in general are good at banding together in a crisis and getting on with what needs to be done, and I think we can get through a month of this - I'm a bit more concerned if these measures continue to drag on with no end in sight, as the public will be frustrated, getting itchy to get out, get back to some kind of normality, and potentially will be less keen to adhere strictly to the guidelines.

I've been out walking around the country quite a bit, and while most people seem to be maintaining social distance and have been decidedly good natured about it, I've seen a fair few people or groups of people who don't seem to be concerned at all, and are just walking by each other with no attempt to move out of the way or keep their distance from others - which is a bit depressing.
User avatar
desmond
Jedi Poster
Posts: 9609
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:00 am
mu:zines | music magazine archive | difficultAudio

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:43 pm

I've been very impressed with people in the village where I live. The vast majority are keeping their distances while remaining friendly and wonderfully supportive. I did see three women dog walkers who were chin-wagging at close quarters, but when I gave them a wide berth they all took a step away from each other. ;-)

There's very little traffic at the usual rush-hours, and far fewer supermarket delivery vans than usual too. Ambient noise (motorway, trains, planes etc) has always been pretty low here, but it's noticeably even lower at the moment, and actually the M5 motorway is almost just lorries.

Great time to record the dawn chorus... Only my recorder is in my lockup man-cave 6 miles away... Maybe I can pick it up when I go to get some rations later this week.
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27118
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Sam Spoons » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:27 pm

It's not black and white but all down to percentages, if enough people keep enough distance enough of the time the virus will die down/out. We just need to do the best we can.
User avatar
Sam Spoons
Jedi Poster
Posts: 12276
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2003 1:00 am
Location: Manchester UK
Finally taking this recording lark seriously (and recording my Gypsy Jazz CD)........

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:21 am

People are being fairly responsible in the UK (mostly!) but elsewhere (Germany and the US in particular) there are plenty of people on the streets going about their daily business in many parts of cities. As for S.America and Africa - most countries seem to think it's all someone else's problem.

This infection seems to be running out of control in the US. Nearly a thousand deaths in one day yesterday, bringing the total to 4055 - hopelessly over the 1800 that it would have been if the figures had followed the Spanish/French/Italian models.

Germany has been patting itself on the back about its excellent testing record - but I am getting reports of a total lack of civil responsibility from Berlin and elsewhere and that could have a mighty sting in the tail and deliver a massive wake-up call! Young Germans have labeled this 'The Pensioner-Plague'. 50% of German Millenials don't think that it will affect them and see no reason to take precautions - whereas that attitude is held by only 18% of the whole population.
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2440
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:48 am

The Red Bladder wrote:People are being fairly responsible in the UK (mostly!) but elsewhere (Germany and the US in particular) there are plenty of people on the streets going about their daily business in many parts of cities.

I fear America has done far too little far too late, and BS Trump's ludicrous denials really haven't helped. Hopefully the voters will remember when the time comes... As for S.America, Africa, and India, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't end up piling bodies in the streets... :cry:

Young Germans have labeled this 'The Pensioner-Plague'. 50% of German Millenials don't think that it will affect them and see no reason to take precautions

I'm not entirely surprised. We all known it's an unpleasant but not too difficult illness for the vast majority of younger people, and with so much selfishness -- or perhaps it's just thoughtlessness -- amongst the young many (or even most) just wouldn't care if they are spreading the disease amongst the more vulnerable.

I note with considerable disappointment that virtually all of the volunteer helpers in my village who are aiding the vulnerable with deliveries etc are middle aged and seniors. As I walk past houses exercising the dog I can see countless teenagers sat indoors playing games or watching films on their ludicrously over-sized TVs!
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27118
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby CS70 » Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:00 am

Hugh Robjohns wrote:with so much selfishness -- or perhaps it's just thoutghlessness -- amongst the young many (or even most) just wouldn't care if they are spreading the disease amongst the more vulnerable.

Just to cheer up the picture a bit, here in Norway at least there's a large number of young people who has offered their services to help whomever in need. The relative page in FB is full of help offers (even if unluckily the whataboutists are creeping up there as well), and the major (and basically only) second-hand website in Norway has created a space on purpose for people offering help, and many are definitely not old.

You can see the faces here, and it's heart warming:

https://www.finn.no/bap/forsale/search. ... 95&filters
User avatar
CS70
Jedi Poster
Posts: 5326
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Oslo, Norway
Silver Spoon - Check out our latest video and the FB page

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:06 pm

We now have to add 563 to the UK's dismal total of C19 deaths.

You place one grain of rice on the first square, two on the second, four on the third . . .

We've all heard the sadly fictitious story of the man who invented chess. The end result is about one trillion metric tons of rice (aka a lot!) Though Carl Sagen wrote: "Exponentials can't go on forever, because they will gobble up everything."

But at the moment C19 is growing exponentially in the UK and the US - and many other places as well, it's just that they are right at their beginning of the journey. Infections tend to stop when about 60% of a finite population has been infected. The infection runs out of hosts and either burbles away in the background, waiting to reappear later, or just vanishes. So if society does nothing, worldwide, even if the overall case mortality rate is just 1%, millions will die. In the Third World, the rates will be far higher.

C19 daily deaths at the moment are roughly trebling in the UK and the US every five days. And that rate is accelerating - yesterday's total of 381 was shocking, but today's total of 563 leaves one numb. This week the UK is averaging 320 deaths per day, last week it was 69. If that trend continues, over a thousand people a day will be dying at some point in the next week, possibly sooner.

The situation in the US is far worse.
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2440
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Ian Shaw » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:41 pm

Definitely time to get the sound recorder out. i have the Quantock Hills to myself when I'm out on my bike every morning. It's like my personal playground. I've found a spot in the pine forest where the sound is deadened except for the birdsong around me. I stop there every morning for a few minutes & just listen. Small mercies I guess, but gotta make the most of them while I can. I'm gonna be very poor but very fit (hopefully) by the time this is over!

All the best, everyone.
User avatar
Ian Shaw
Regular
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2004 1:00 am
Location: Somerset, The Hilly Bits
Sent by carrier pigeon

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:59 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:But at the moment C19 is growing exponentially in the UK and the US...

You have to be very careful with statements like this, because of the inherent time-lag in infections becoming hospital cases becoming deaths.

The exponential growth in deaths is due to infections from a month or more ago, before the isolation requiremetns were put in place.

In contrast, the numbers of daily new cases appears not to be following a simple exponential progression and just might -- although it's still too soon to say for sure -- be showing signs of levelling off:

daily new cases.jpg


... and if that's the case, it suggests the isolation is working and the death rate might start to fall within the next week or two...

But whatever way you look at this, and whatever happens over the coming weeks, this has been a devasting event in myriad ways and if this doesn't make governments and peoples all around the world take notice and totally reassess the way we all live and prioritise things, nothing will...
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27118
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:59 pm

I am always optimistic - but quite honestly, the 'new cases' charts for every country are totally bogus and must remain so until we have total population testing all the time. And that is downright impossible. At the moment UK 'new cases' figures are being kept low by the inability to test properly.

I have been playing with the numbers for a few hours every day and they just beat a dismal drum. I said upfront that the whole thing was not as bad as people make out - but I was dead wrong! As soon as real numbers started coming in, I was able to use statistical modeling to project forward and all I can say is ouch.

To make matters worse, I was emailing someone filming in Atlanta and they are still working. I Skyped someone in LA and they were off to walk their three dogs in the hills above the city and were chatting to the neighbours on the road outside their house. Our eldest son told me that Berlin is nowhere near being locked down.

And then there's the economic news . . . you don't want to know!
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2440
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:19 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:At the moment UK 'new cases' figures are being kept low by the inability to test properly.

I was under the impression that the 'new cases' figure was of those presenting to hospital and confirmed to have C19.

I was emailing someone filming in Atlanta and they are still working. I Skyped someone in LA and they were off to walk their three dogs in the hills above the city and were chatting to the neighbours on the road outside their house.

Yes, I just can't understand the American attitude given that they must be aware of what's been happening in Italy and Spain, and now the UK, France and Germany...

And then there's the economic news . . . you don't want to know!

:lol: I already know! I've worked through the crash in the 80s, and I lived through the chaos of the three-days weeks and rolling powercuts of the 70s... but I suspect this will be far worse than both of those. I've only seen films and read books about the 30s depression, but I reckon that's quite possibly where we'll be heading.
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27118
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby wireman » Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:43 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:I am always optimistic - but quite honestly, the 'new cases' charts for every country are totally bogus and must remain so until we have total population testing all the time. And that is downright impossible. At the moment UK 'new cases' figures are being kept low by the inability to test properly.

But the new cases in the UK are mostly people who are ill enough to be tested and that is a sensible thing to count. If they really are testing more in the UK now then that will inflate the figures.

The real test will be the death rate in a couple of weeks.

Also, I suspect the log scales hide the exponential nature for most people who are not familiar with that type of graph.
wireman
Regular
Posts: 400
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:00 am

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby blinddrew » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:18 pm

here's a very good animated graph that removes a lot of unknowns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4 ... ytLoSr9qxw
User avatar
blinddrew
Jedi Poster
Posts: 10210
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:00 am
Location: York
Ignore the post count, I have no idea what I'm doing...

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby CS70 » Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:11 pm

The most important bit of that video is the end: the problem with "real data" is the there isn't much of it. All the data we see is "dirty" and wrong, and in most cases we have no way to know how much wrong - just the direction of the error.

That's why the most meaningful way to handle this is, for once, not data based, but from first principles: you know how a viral pandemic behaves, regardless of the specific (unknown) state you are in as a country, and you act accordingly, blocking the spreading channels, again regardless. Then you wait. When you observe a consistent trend towards zero for enough time, while you've maintained the same regime of behavior, then you know you're out. That's because zero is a special number - every proxy of zero, no matter how wrong, is zero.

In this specific case, the main factor was the one number we knew from the start - the novelty of the virus and the consequent total lack of immunity (100% of the population is susceptible), together the ease of contagion, which was also easily observable over a short time. These two things, even assuming a small mortality rate (with no data whatsoever other than the similarity of this virus with others of the same family), meant that the situation warranted a strong response. Say 1% of 7.5 billion people is a lot of people.

Right now, all we can do is wait, and collect the (bad) data we can, and look for decreasing trends and ultimately stable sequences of zeros. Hopefully they'll start coming soon.
User avatar
CS70
Jedi Poster
Posts: 5326
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Oslo, Norway
Silver Spoon - Check out our latest video and the FB page

PreviousNext