You are here

COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Advice on everything from getting your music heard to setting up a label and royalties.

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:34 pm

Today's tally of deaths is 569.

62 scientists at Imperial College London and John Hopkins University calculated infection rates for 11 European countries. You can study it here - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

Italy has a 10% infection rate. Spain 15%. Belgium 4%. Switzerland, Sweden and France are at about 3.5%. Austria and Denmark are at 1%. Germany 0.7%. Norway at about 0.3%.

The UK is (as of March 28th) at 3%. Page 28 of that study seems to predict a daily death rate for the UK of between 250 and 750 by today (2nd April) if there had been no intervention by the government and between 200 and 400 with intervention (talk about giving your forward projections a wide range!)

Today's figures would suggest that either government intervention is having little effect or that the assumption of a 1% case fatality rate (CFR) is unrealistically low.

If a CFR of 2% is the realistic figure and the UK can hold total infections as low as 5% this Summer, that still comes to a total death toll of 65,000.

So I'd better finish building those shelves in the studio office before I am one of them!
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2440
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:57 pm

There's a famous quote along the lines of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

But in the modern age perhaps it should be amended to read:

There are four kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, and computer models... :bouncy:

The error margins on that paper are so large as to make it largely meaningless... Probably because the source information is so sketchy.
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27099
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby blinddrew » Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:30 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:There's a famous quote along the lines of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

But in the modern age perhaps it should be amended to read:

There are four kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, and computer models... :bouncy:

The error margins on that paper are so large as to make if be largely meaningless... Probably because the source information is so sketchy.
GIGO :)

But it should get better as the data improves.
User avatar
blinddrew
Jedi Poster
Posts: 10208
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:00 am
Location: York
Ignore the post count, I have no idea what I'm doing...

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:33 am

No one really knows anything about this virus, there are those who are doomsayers, that paint everything as black as possible, that way they’ll feel really good if it ends sooner rather than later, then there are those that are understating everything and playing it down, to make them feel good sooner rather than later.
No one knows, that’s the bottom line, but the government have to be seen to be doing something, as usual, even though it may be pointless, or not, we shall see.
Be interesting to compare the statistics "after the event" between doing nothing, and the measures we’re taking now.
We’ve reached a brick wall in our house, there’s nothing to talk about regarding this virus, so we may as well just continue cleaning out the garage and turning my car into a primer grey ratmobile, I’ve got nothing to lose as it’s probably worth about three quid now, along with our house.
User avatar
Arpangel
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 3833
Joined: Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:00 am
https://anthonyflynn.bandcamp.com/album/toy-town

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby IAA » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:41 am

I think the NHS response to Covid is nothing short of transformational (an oft over used word in NHS planning!). BUT there remains little focus on those key NHS services that are being suspended, halted, deferred. Cancer treatment (although an assessment for urgent will still take place), 2 week referrals, elective surgery, routine appointments, screening services, primary care long term condition management and likely organ transplants..and as for mental health services.....clearly you cannot have a finite service do everything but I do think some of the reprioritisation and clinical thresholds will have a health consequence and people ought to be aware of this.

Speaking to current clinicians it’s obvious ithe NHS is running on a war footing. In these conditions decisions become polarised (for the greater good) and scrutiny becomes opaque. Our NHS staff are human and some will make bad calls (as they can do normally) but normally the scrutiny and support is there I hope we don’t lose that in this situation.
Defining the NHS as staffed by “heroes” or “angels” Is not helpful in ensuring we remain capable of scrutiny and criticism. I write this as a former NHS clinician, a father to a front line Nurse respiratory specialist and with many friends still working tremendously hard on the current front line.
IAA
Frequent Poster
Posts: 583
Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:00 am

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby CS70 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:43 am

Arpangel wrote:No one knows, that’s the bottom line

Well you seem to like the doomsayer's side. :-D

The reality is much more mundane: there's stuff that is known, stuff that isn't and both are changing as time goes and attentions get focused.

It's the same for everything, why should it be different for this situation? It's not like this is an unprecedented type of event. In the US, the Bush administration had even drafted serious plans and indicated preparations for just such a pandemic (only to be blatantly ignored by the morons currently in charge).

As in many things a little technical, understanding what's what (and keeping that up to date) requires advance knowledge, skill and work.

Be interesting to compare the statistics "after the event" between doing nothing, and the measures we’re taking now.

You will be able to: there's a few countries which conducted (or still are) interesting experiments. The US was such one during the first weeks of their outbreak - and you can compare the statistics now. Sweden is another. The UK itself, started a little late, even if miraculously the administration realized their insanity for god knows what reason and suddenly changed course.

We’ve reached a brick wall in our house, there’s nothing to talk about regarding this virus, so we may as well just continue cleaning out the garage and turning my car into a primer grey ratmobile, I’ve got nothing to loose as it’s probably worth about three quid now, along with our house.

That's just what the doctor orders. No point in talking about the virus.. the talk is only useful to make people understand they've got to do what you are doing: stay home, stay put, wait it out.

In the end you'll have a wonderful ratmobile! :D
User avatar
CS70
Jedi Poster
Posts: 5325
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Oslo, Norway
Silver Spoon - Check out our latest video and the FB page

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:23 am

My interpretation of even more draconian self isolation is "divide, and conquer"
After the dust has settled, I can see some things being phased in that represent just more control, as a consequence of this virus. A cashless society, electronic tracking, the disappearance of small business, the high street.
User avatar
Arpangel
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 3833
Joined: Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:00 am
https://anthonyflynn.bandcamp.com/album/toy-town

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby CS70 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:47 am

Yeah, we need to be vigilant. Security and emergencies have often been exploited by power-hungry types. On the other side, not sure if it's a consequence this specific emergency or that most of the people alive never had to move a finger for their liberties..
User avatar
CS70
Jedi Poster
Posts: 5325
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Oslo, Norway
Silver Spoon - Check out our latest video and the FB page

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:25 am

Arpangel wrote:A cashless society, electronic tracking, the disappearance of small business, the high street.

With the exception of small businesses, these things have been in rapid progression for at least the last decade and are inevitable regardless of the C19 situation.

As for small businesses, it kind of depends how you define them, but there have probably never been so many 'small businesses' trading through eBay and Amazon etc, and people working in the gig economy.

Small, individual shop-front businesses in town high streets may be on the decline, and I think that's a huge shame... but it is an inherent side effect of the way we all live these days. We need to be vigilant about maintaining our freedoms, of course, but society has always been driven by convenience.

The thing that has shocked me more than any other is how the vast majority of businesses (and people, actually) have virtually zero financial buffering to be able to ride out difficult times and are so expectant that 'the government' should save them. :think:
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27099
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:17 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:The thing that has shocked me more than any other is how the vast majority of businesses (and people, actually) have virtually zero financial buffering to be able to ride out difficult times and are so expectant that 'the government' should save them. :think:

This!

When I am not being caustic and nasty on a forum, I give help and advice to SMEs and individuals in financial difficulties. The current crisis has launched a veritable avalanche of cries for help from businesses of all sizes.

The first problem smaller businesses today have is that nearly ALL rely on continued turnover. They nearly ALL rely on things remaining relatively stable. And that's all of them - car manufacture to magazine publishing. You look at their debt-to-capital ratio (liabilities as a % of assets) and in the UK it is far too often very close to 100% and in far too many cases, over 100% - they are technically insolvent!

As I got ready to enter the film world, I was made aware by those already working there that turnover is 'lumpy' to say the least. You have to be able to survive years on nothing. It is for that reason that big companies survive and are less risky. A corner shop with one location is a huge risk and a chain of 500 is not. If one location fails - so what? There are 499 that can survive.

But there is another problem for the SME. Love! The publisher of a single magazine tends to 'love' that product. The publisher of 134 magazines will hate all those titles that are not earning and seek to either sell them or just close them. In the case of EMAP, they just got rid of all 470!

If Aldi finds that a single shop was a mistake and is losing money, they will close it. They have tens of thousands all over Planet Earth! They are not in love with one shop. The proprietor of a single solitary convenience store loves his shop and is proud of his shop. And all too often he or she seeks help when it is already a few years too late!

And then there is a third problem that is endemic in the UK SME world - equity. Or rather the lack of equity. They have little or nothing saved and have nothing of value (e.g. the building) to fall back on.

The typical High Street shop is a rented lock-up. The proprietor has usually today signed a personal guarantee on the lease and that lease is for eight years at least. Even if he wanted to pull the plug, he can't.

If he owned the building, he could close the shop and rent it out or otherwise do something else with it to rescue the business and not have to lose his house and livelihood. If he is an auto trader, he will be tied into supply agreements as part of his franchise, he is sitting on umpteen cars that he has not yet paid for and he is tied to a car lot and building that is leased or mortgaged.

He doesn't own the cars, the bank owns the building and when the music stops, he cannot pay the staff.

Right now, the music has stopped.

The coming recession will not be over in my lifetime.
The Red Bladder
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 2440
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 am
Location: . . .
 

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:37 pm

The first and third problem applies to a lot of individuals as well as businesses, of course. :frown:
User avatar
Hugh Robjohns
Moderator
Posts: 27099
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2003 12:00 am
Location: Worcestershire, UK
Technical Editor, Sound On Sound

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:03 pm

Just had a mail from a friend who gave up his shop to work from home to deal with on-line business only, this was just before the virus hit. Now he’s almost certainly going to go down, he deals in specialist travel, and has had so many requests for refunds he just hasn’t got the money to cover them. He gets a percentage paid by insurance, but there’s still not enough money in the kitty to cover an unprecedented amount of refunds.
He’s just one of many small guys I know that are in trouble right now, it’s very worrying.
User avatar
Arpangel
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 3833
Joined: Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:00 am
https://anthonyflynn.bandcamp.com/album/toy-town

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby blinddrew » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:36 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:The thing that has shocked me more than any other is how the vast majority of businesses (and people, actually) have virtually zero financial buffering to be able to ride out difficult times and are so expectant that 'the government' should save them. :think:
I'm not sure that's fair Hugh. Millenials (and then Gen Z) entered into adulthood just in time for the dotcom bubble to burst, followed by the 2008, and now the current crisis has knocked the FTSE all share back down to 2000 levels.
During this time we've had tuition fees introduced and maintenance grants scrapped, we've had final salary pensions closed to new entrants then scrapped entirely, we've had a housing market boom that's made property ownership nigh on impossible outside of inheritance, we've had 10 years of austerity, and real-terms falling salaries until the last couple of years.
And if you have been able to put some money aside the interest rates have been pittance - generally lower than inflation.
There are plenty of exceptions obviously, but our experience as a building society is that there is a huge chunk of in-work people who are barely keeping above the poverty line and subsisting pay-cheque to pay-cheque.
It's not that they expect to be bailed out, they just cannot afford to save.
User avatar
blinddrew
Jedi Poster
Posts: 10208
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:00 am
Location: York
Ignore the post count, I have no idea what I'm doing...

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:40 pm

blinddrew wrote:
Hugh Robjohns wrote:The thing that has shocked me more than any other is how the vast majority of businesses (and people, actually) have virtually zero financial buffering to be able to ride out difficult times and are so expectant that 'the government' should save them. :think:
I'm not sure that's fair Hugh. Millenials (and then Gen Z) entered into adulthood just in time for the dotcom bubble to burst, followed by the 2008, and now the current crisis has knocked the FTSE all share back down to 2000 levels.
During this time we've had tuition fees introduced and maintenance grants scrapped, we've had final salary pensions closed to new entrants then scrapped entirely, we've had a housing market boom that's made property ownership nigh on impossible outside of inheritance, we've had 10 years of austerity, and real-terms falling salaries until the last couple of years.
And if you have been able to put some money aside the interest rates have been pittance - generally lower than inflation.
There are plenty of exceptions obviously, but our experience as a building society is that there is a huge chunk of in-work people who are barely keeping above the poverty line and subsisting pay-cheque to pay-cheque.
It's not that they expect to be bailed out, they just cannot afford to save.

I also know a few people who just manage to stay afloat being self-employed, a couple with young kids too, they both work, he’s a builder, and she has a nail business and works from home, they have a bit of savings, but not enough to see them through if this goes on long term.
User avatar
Arpangel
Frequent Poster (Level2)
Posts: 3833
Joined: Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:00 am
https://anthonyflynn.bandcamp.com/album/toy-town

Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Trevor Johnson » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:52 pm

The thing that has shocked me more than any other is how the vast majority of businesses (and people, actually) have virtually zero financial buffering to be able to ride out difficult times and are so expectant that 'the government' should save them

Most business need to grow and to do that have to borrow and pay back capital plus interest: growth, for SMEs tends to be the difficult part in terms of cash flow, etc.. I agree, though, that the super-rich and others should not be looking for taxpayers money for their workforces. Blindrew has summed up the issues very well,

As for the data analysis, I don't see any papers appearing in journals with reasonable impact factors until 2022 at the earliest. And there will be a government enquiry, that is certain.
Trevor Johnson
Regular
Posts: 282
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 12:00 am

PreviousNext