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COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby James Perrett » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:42 pm

Trevor Johnson wrote:As for the data analysis, I don't see any papers appearing in journals with reasonable impact factors until 2022 at the earliest. And there will be a government enquiry, that is certain.

The newspapers love to quote today's figures but, what most people don't realise, is that the numbers coming out today could easily refer to deaths that happened a week or maybe even two weeks ago. So, given the lag in data reporting, together with the incubation period and the fact that most people will have had symptoms for a week before they are bad enough to go to hospital and get tested, we've probably got another 2 weeks or so before we really see the effects of the current social distancing coming through in the data.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:36 pm

We are so afraid of death, no one even asks whether this 'cure' is actually worse.

Article by Jonathan Sumption (former Supreme Court Judge) Sunday Times 5th April 2020

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself – nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” The words are Franklin D Roosevelt's. His challenge was recession, not disease, but his words have a wider resonance.

Fear is dangerous. It is the enemy of reason. It suppresses balance and judgment. And it is infectious. Roosevelt thought government was doing too little. But today fear is more likely to push governments into doing too much, as democratic politicians run for cover in the face of public panic. Is the coronavirus the latest and most damaging example?

Epidemics are not new. Bubonic plague, smallpox, typhoid, meningitis, Spanish flu all took a heavy toll in their time. An earlier generation would not have understood the current hysteria over Covid, whose symptoms are milder and whose case mortality is lower than any of these.

What has changed? For one thing, we have become much more risk-averse. We no longer accept the wheel of fortune. We take security for granted. We do not tolerate avoidable tragedies. Fear stops us thinking about the more remote costs of the measures necessary to avoid them, measures that may pitch us into even greater misfortunes of a different kind.

We have also acquired an irrational horror of death. Today death is the great obscenity, inevitable but somehow unnatural. In the midst of life, our ancestors lived with death, an ever-present fact that they understood and accommodated. They experienced the death of friends and family, young and old, generally at home. Today it is hidden away in hospitals and care homes: out of sight and out of mind, unmentionable until it strikes.

We know too little about Covid-19. We do not know its true case mortality because of the uncertainties about the total number infected. We do not know how many of those who have died would have died anyway – possibly a bit later – from underlying conditions (“comorbidities”, in doctor-speak).

What is clear is that Covid-19 is not the Black Death. It is dangerous for those with serious existing medical conditions, especially if they are old. For others, the symptoms are mild in the overwhelming majority of cases.

The prime minister, the health secretary and the Prince of Wales – all of whom have caught it and are fine – represent the normal pattern. The much-publicised deaths of fit young people are tragic but they are outliers.

Yet governments have adopted, with public support, the most extreme and indiscriminate measures.

We have subjected most of the population, young or old, vulnerable or fit, to house imprisonment for an indefinite period.

We have set about abolishing human sociability in ways that lead to unimaginable distress.

We have given the police powers that, even if they respect the limits, will create an authoritarian pattern of life utterly inconsistent with our traditions.

We have resorted to law, which requires exact definition and banished common sense, which requires judgement.

These things represent an interference with our lives and our personal autonomy that is intolerable in a free society. To say that they are necessary for larger social ends, however valuable those ends may be, is to treat human beings as objects, mere instruments of policy.

And that is before we even get to the economic impact. We have put hundreds of thousands out of a job and into universal credit.

Recent research suggests that we are already pushing a fifth of small businesses into bankruptcy, many of which will have taken a lifetime of honest toil to build. The proportion is forecast to rise to a third after three months of lockdown.

Generations to come are being saddled with high levels of public and private debt. These things kill too. If all this is the price if saving human life, we have to ask whether it is worth paying.

The truth is that in public policy there are no absolute values, not even the preservation of life. There are only pros and cons. Do we allow cars, among the most lethal weapons ever devised, although we know for certain that every year thousands will be killed or maimed by them? We do this because we judge that it is a price worth paying to get about in speed and comfort. Every one of us who drives is a tacit party to that Faustian bargain.

A similar calculation about the coronavirus might justify a very short period of lockdown and business closures if it helped the critical care capacity of the NHS to catch up. It may even be that tough social distancing measures would be acceptable as applied only to vulnerable categories.

But as soon as the scientists start talking about a month or even three or six months, we are entering the realm of sinister fantasy in which the cure has taken over as the biggest threat to our society. Lockdowns are at best only a way of buying time anyway. Viruses don't just go away. Ultimately we will emerge from this crisis when we acquire some collective (or “herd”) immunity. That is how epidemics burn themselves out.

In the absence of a vaccine, it will happen, but only when a sufficient proportion of the population is exposed to the disease.

I am not a scientist. Most of you are not scientists. But we can all read the scientific literature, which is immaculately clear but has obvious limitations. Scientists can help us assess the clinical consequences of different ways to contain coronavirus. But they are no more qualified than the rest of us to say whether they are worth turning our world upside down and inflicting serious long-term damage. All of us have a responsibility to maintain a sense of proportion, especially when so many are losing theirs.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby IAA » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:56 pm

A similar calculation about the coronavirus might justify a very short period of lockdown and business closures if it helped the critical care capacity of the NHS to catch up

This is the key, the whole response is about protecting NHS capacity. It’s now, as I have said, predominantly a service geared around managing the huge admissions associated with the virus. Whilst my learned friend's comments echo with me, I remain extremely worried about the very ill people too afraid to seek help from a NHS that Is in many ways closed for normal service. The fact that some senior NHS planners are saying publically that “There could be some very serious unintended consequences [to all the resource going into fighting coronavirus]. While there will be a lot of covid-19 fatalities, we could end up losing more ‘years of life’ because of fatalities relating to non-covid-19 health complications.” (Source Health Service Journal). We need to be aware when this is over there will be a HUGE backlog in the care and management of very poorly people.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:15 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:We do not know how many of those who have died would have died anyway – possibly a bit later – from underlying conditions (“comorbidities”, in doctor-speak).

We're all going to die anyway... But most of us would prefer not to die needlessly early through unnecessary exposure to a virus spread by the thoughtless or uncaring actions of our neighbours, and the refusal of medical care from a health service we've all paid for!

And be in no mistake, if the virus is allowed to run free hospitals will be totally swamped within weeks and will have no option but to refuse treatment to tens or even hundreds of thousands.

This 'is the treatment worse than the disease?' questioning is all well and good for those who believe they are safe. But what does it say of a society that's considering consigning its weaker members to unnecessary early death, just for the sake of their own convenience and wealth? It's certainly not civilisation in the real sense of the word.

And what government would ever contemplate letting this virus run unchecked anyway, when doing so surely means mass graves and refrigerated lorries crawling around the suburbs like dustbin vans collecting the dead? I wouldn't be surprised if, in some countries, we even start seeing bodies piling up in the streets quite soon! What's the public reaction going to be to scenes like that?

As I said before, the Government is between a very big rock, and a very hard place. If it lets the virus run its course economic damage might be minimised, but the support of the electorate (and possibly the respect of other countries) will be lost. On the other hand, if they enforce social isolation to prevent the spread of the virus they save lives and the NHS, but risk losing support of the electorate and wrecking the economy... Who'd be a politician?

It is dangerous for those with serious existing medical conditions, especially if they are old. For others, the symptoms are mild in the overwhelming majority of cases.

Tell that to the families of the growing number of previously perfectlynhealthy doctors and nurses who have succumbed... Or the growing number of deaths of younger people with no comorbidities at all. Local Birmingham news interviewed an ICU doctor who said the majority of people under his care was under 50 and fit...

The much-publicised deaths of fit young people are tragic but they are outliers.

...so are you really suggesting these 'outliers' actually don't matter and we shouldn't bother to provide medical care to help them recover?

How far would this policy extend? Would this kind of thinking also apply to caring for the disabled? How about anyone who contracts an inconvenient disease, or injury? Should we stop treating cancer sufferers?

Who decides who is worth medical assistance and who isn't?

You? The government? An economist? Should you have to prove your economic value in order to be granted treatment? (Isn't that kind of the way the US healthcare system currently works?)

That seems a very greasy road you're starting down...

We have subjected most of the population, young or old, vulnerable or fit, to house imprisonment for an indefinite period.

Indefinite, but not endless, and not without good scientific reason or expected beneficial results.

We have set about abolishing human sociability in ways that lead to unimaginable distress.

I think the stress of losing a family member from this virus, isolated from family and friends in their final hours in hospital, must lead to unimaginable stress too!

These things represent an interference with our lives and our personal autonomy that is intolerable in a free society. To say that they are necessary for larger social ends, however valuable those ends may be, is to treat human beings as objects, mere instruments of policy.

So how would those suffering with the virus be treated, under your approach, when being denied treatment, which is the inevitable outcome of your approach? Wouldn't they then become mere objects, or instruments of policy?

Can you really not appreciate the difference between some healthy people being asked to stay indoors for a short while, and some poorly people being told to hurry up and die?

And that is before we even get to the economic impact.

We've had economic set backs before. We've survived and recovered. And we could even use this opportunity to burn all the economists and bankers and come up with new, less materialistic ways of living and thriving that might even work far better with the planet!

I'll stop there to keep my blood pressure in check..... :madas:
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby wireman » Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:46 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:Fear is dangerous. It is the enemy of reason. It suppresses balance and judgment. And it is infectious. Roosevelt thought government was doing too little. But today fear is more likely to push governments into doing too much, as democratic politicians run for cover in the face of public panic.

If anything, in the UK the politicians held off (perhaps too long) until the realities of exponential growth sunk in and they realised the warm words non-quantified promises of more ICU beds, tests and ventilators would wear thin after a while. So the most sensible thing to do given the unknowns and the very high likelyhood that the cases would overwhelm the intensive care capacity was to take the steps they have no matter how painful. The longer the wait the worse it is, it seems we are still looking at 7-10 days before the peak in the UK.

Once the extent of community transmission is known we will be in a better position to re-evaluate.
At the moment the deaths are way below the seasonal averages, even for the oldest age groups.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby blinddrew » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:35 pm

I can't help but feel that if you replace 'irrational horror of death' with 'much higher value on life' then it underscores the flaws in that approach.
I would have liked to ask the author how many deaths he would consider acceptable to preserve an economic stability that has been failing large sections of the populace for the last twenty years anyway.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Sam Spoons » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:32 pm

Hugh Robjohns wrote:And we could even use this opportunity to burn all the economists and bankers and come up with new, less materialistic ways of living and thriving that might even work far better with the planet!

:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Stratman57 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:32 am

As anyone who has read my responses to previous posts on a variety of threads, know my partner's situation, consequently, I would be completely in favour of arresting any assholes who think that the lock down doesn't apply to them, and then ship them off to a location where they can happily infect each other and either get better or die.

That would also eliminate them from further contaminating the gene pool.

Regards, Simon.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Stratman57 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:51 am

Of course, unfortunately, some of the morons will survive, as the virus doesn't distinguish between rational people and dick heads.

Regards, Simon.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:38 am

A lot of what Mr Bladder has said here is very sensible, it also reminds me a lot about the content of a podcast David Icke made recently, about fear, and the cure for this virus, and social isolation.
I’m a big fan of David Icke, he’s is "not" the lunatic he’s painted to be, that’s just a PR job made by people who he’s exposing, the last thing they want you to believe is that he’s a sane, reasonable, intelligent and perceptive individual.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:37 am

I knew this would happen!

I have just sited an article by Lord Sumption as a trigger to a discussion - it is not my option! Indeed, the idea that we should do nothing (which is the implication of some of the responses here) is not even Lord Sumption's PoV.

He is asking a question!

But it does highlight a question we are going to have to ask in the long run - when do we go back to 'normal' business and thereby deliberately cause some fatalities?

Hugh Robjohns wrote:I'll stop there to keep my blood pressure in check..... :madas:

Arpangel wrote:A lot of what Mr Bladder has said here is very sensible, it also reminds me a lot about the content of a podcast David Icke made recently,
I didn't say anything - see above! As for Comrade Icke, just read some of the extreme anti-semitic and racist stuff that dangerous man puts out!

He's just a self-aggrandising former D-Class 'celebrity' whose career was over and found a new career by pandering to the more lunatic US citizen (and a few here) who are prepared to swallow totally crazy stories about lizards and telephone masts and the 'Illuminati' and anything else that is a clear sign of psychosis and delusion, mixed with liberal doses of racism, bigotry and extreme conspiracy theories.

If anyone believes Icke's nonsense, may I humbly point out that there might be just a bit too much tinfoil on your head and that you need to set your lizard-guns to 'stun'. (And remember that a cordless drill from Lidl is not really a lizard gun!)

The fact that dangerous mongers of untruths and fantasies like Icke are getting a higher profile in the debate that is to come means that the debate cannot be sober or meaningful.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:46 am

The Red Bladder wrote:I knew this would happen!

I have just sited an article by Lord Sumption as a trigger to a discussion - it is not my option!

Sorry RB... I thought it was just the opening paragraph that was attributed to Lord Bonkers. I apologise for assuming the rest were your own arguments.

My thoughts stand, though. It's a dangerous and extraordinarily one-sided and grossly unbalanced article.

H
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Mike Stranks » Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:02 pm

Personally I'm not that bothered who actually said it and who was acting as a pundit...

But I'm with Hugh's extended response and the underlying philosophy 100%. Thanks for posting it Hugh. :clap: :clap: :clap:
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:59 pm

Mike Stranks wrote:But I'm with Hugh's extended response and the underlying philosophy 100%. Thanks for posting it Hugh. :clap: :clap: :clap:
This!

I think that we were all surprised by the fact that the NHS and the government were not only totally unprepared for this crisis but remained unprepared and even refused help well into March (according to many reports).

There seems to be a rudderless quality to the official reactions to C19 so far.

There are going to be more and more voices like His Lordship's, esp. when companies start going out of business. Holding a position of sanity and humanity is going to get progressively harder.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Johnsy » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:00 pm

Sam Spoons wrote:
Hugh Robjohns wrote:And we could even use this opportunity to burn all the economists and bankers and come up with new, less materialistic ways of living and thriving that might even work far better with the planet!

:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

Absolutely: Less mixing desks, less audio interfaces, less computers, less mic preamps, less keyboards, less modular synths, less guitars... less magazines.

Let us cast aside the things of this world. It'll be great.
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