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Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

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Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby shufflebeat » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:32 pm

https://variety.com/2020/legit/global/u ... 234734980/

https://www.musicweek.com/live/read/ind ... ing/080784


It will be interesting to see how order can be maintained in a pub/club/stadium full of hyped up revellers (or gently nodding middle aged folkies, depending on your usual audience).

I've been idly structuring a few potential scenarios for a week or so and would be interested to hear what others ID as the issues and possible solutions.

Much of my works is in small and large pubs and social clubs. This involves lots of people who may or may not know each other in close proximity to each other and the band, getting gradually less inhibited and more requiring of the toilet as the night goes on.

Acoustic/folkie/country music is not incompatible with grown ups sitting in bubbles at their own tables and even bringing their own drink and paying a door charge, so that's an option for church halls but not for licenced premises.

Many pubs have multi-screen setups for sport and a spare room so a small mixer handling 4 mics and DIs and a half decent video cam (phone) via HDMI to the TVs and house PA is a possibility but so.much to go wrong.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby blinddrew » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:24 pm

I think the Music Week article has most of it covered, fundamentally:
1) can venues make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
2) can act make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
3) can an audience be persuaded to return to a 'high risk' environment?
4) can an audience be expected to maintain social distancing in an energetic and alcohol-influenced environment?

I suspect there are very few situations where all four of those conditions can be met. Yet.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby shufflebeat » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:39 pm

Something that has preoccupied me throughout this whole thang is the disparity between the group/population perspective and that relevant the individual. de Pfeffel seems uninterested in understanding or promoting any kind of informed individual approach preferring to advise from a respectful distance and cross his fingers.

My conversations with bar owners seem to follow this general approach which I find disappointing as it fails to be constructive and collegiate but maybe I'm being unrealistic about group mentality.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby RichardT » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:43 pm

blinddrew wrote:I think the Music Week article has most of it covered, fundamentally:
1) can venues make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
2) can act make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
3) can an audience be persuaded to return to a 'high risk' environment?
4) can an audience be expected to maintain social distancing in an energetic and alcohol-influenced environment?

I suspect there are very few situations where all four of those conditions can be met. Yet.

I think 4 is going to stay problematic!
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby merlyn » Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:27 pm

Here's some data from Worldometers that may inform a decision :

Image
The number of daily new cases hit a minimum around the 8th of July and is going back up.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby James Perrett » Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:57 pm

The ONS estimated that we had around 3,800 new cases per day last week. The Kings College app estimates have been slowly decreasing from just over 2000 a few weeks ago down to just under 1500 cases per day today. Both figures are still significantly higher than the more widely reported government figure.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby merlyn » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:43 pm

Yes, the Worldometers data above is for positive tests, which will be lower than the actual number of daily new cases.

The raw number isn't as important as whether the number is going up or down. If the number of daily new cases is going up, the R number is above 1. If the number of daily new cases is going down, the R number is below 1. The rise in daily new cases could be due to more testing, so a more useful metric is the positivity rate.

I had a look at what the ONS have to say about it :

Image

A horizontal line corresponds to an R number of exactly 1. The 95% credible interval does get wider at the end of the graph.

My own impression is that this announcement is a good headline for the government, rather than a meaningful response to anything tangible.
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby shufflebeat » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:18 pm

merlyn wrote:
My own impression is that this announcement is a good headline for the government, rather than a meaningful response to anything tangible.

So cynical, and yet so credible.

It's worth bearing in mind that the actual statistical equation is:

number of cases (n) times rate of infection (r) equals the level of urgency with which one should rush out and grab toilet rolls and pasta again (fkd).

Low numbers in either element of the equation decreases the (fkd) factor of the total, which is good (tfft).

I didn't think this would happen but I find myself absolutely twitching to play. If a lazy bar steward like me is so eager then de Pfeffel might unleash something from the normal people that he finds difficult to rein in afterwards.
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Gosforth Park socially-distanced gigs

Postby N i g e l » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:35 pm

RichardT wrote:
blinddrew wrote:I think the Music Week article has most of it covered, fundamentally:
1) can venues make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
2) can act make the financials work with a much reduced audience?
3) can an audience be persuaded to return to a 'high risk' environment?
4) can an audience be expected to maintain social distancing in an energetic and alcohol-influenced environment?

I suspect there are very few situations where all four of those conditions can be met. Yet.

I think 4 is going to stay problematic!

Outdoor event, 2500 people.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-53749178

still a valid option, building upto the bank hol at the end of August and then tailing off through Sept when the morning chills set in.

It is all about money in the end, £ / sq meter or what ever, so indoors will be problematic
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby blinddrew » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:02 am

Yep, outdoors is definitely the way forward over the summer. After that though? Who knows?
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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby ef37a » Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:29 am

I have wondered if a fog machine could be modified to include some virus killer and be floated down from the venue's ceiling periodically?

If air con is available could some alcohol be 'misted' into its output?

Cannot see people keeping masks on? I find they get sticky and uncomfortable just plodding round Sainsburys!

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Re: Live music returns (UK). How's this going to work?

Postby blinddrew » Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:46 am

I think you might be able to do some kind of anti-bacterial fog, but anything that is going to take out a virus is going to be pretty unpleasant for other living organisms.
But extensive use of UV lights? If everyone is wearing masks, get them to wear sunglasses as well? Would be pretty trippy to stand on stage and look out across a see of masked and sunglassed faces. :)


(For the avoidance of doubt, this isn't a serious suggestion)
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Re: Gosforth Park socially-distanced gigs

Postby AlecSp » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:58 pm

N i g e l wrote:Outdoor event, 2500 people.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-53749178

still a valid option, building upto the bank hol at the end of August and then tailing off through Sept when the morning chills set in.

It is all about money in the end, £ / sq meter or what ever, so indoors will be problematic

Might not be so viable this weekend!

And let's note 2,500 is the capacity of a small-mid theatre, e.g., Shepherds Bush Empire. Compare the two experiences! That said, it'd appeal to a different type of gig-goer, less mosher, more pic.nic-er.

Hard to know how financially viable these are. Interesting that LiveNation's recent attempt to do this was pulled as they couldn't take the risk of last minute local shutdowns.

Also interesting to look at Van Morrison's 2 distanced dates at the Electric Ballroom in a few weeks. Been on sale for a while, but plenty of tickets still available. Mind you, £100+ per head, and have to buy in groups of 2-6. None of these options work for the solo gig-goer.
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Re: Gosforth Park socially-distanced gigs

Postby N i g e l » Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:18 pm

AlecSp wrote:Might not be so viable this weekend!

And let's note 2,500 is the capacity of a small-mid theatre, e.g., Shepherds Bush Empire. Compare the two experiences! That said, it'd appeal to a different type of gig-goer, less mosher, more pic.nic-er.

Definitely a different experience but these days you may have to take what you can get or do without live music !

AlecSp wrote:Hard to know how financially viable these are. Interesting that LiveNation's recent attempt to do this was pulled as they couldn't take the risk of last minute local shutdowns.

Yeah, I briefly half caught some news about Goodwood (horse racing or cars or somthing). They had spent the money and gone all out to make the event viable and then the rules changed and it was shutdown.
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Re: Gosforth Park socially-distanced gigs

Postby AlecSp » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:15 pm

N i g e l wrote:Definitely a different experience but these days you may have to take what you can get or do without live music !
Indeed, and I shall definitely pass on this kind of experience

N i g e l wrote:Yeah, I briefly half caught some news about Goodwood (horse racing or cars or somthing). They had spent the money and gone all out to make the event viable and then the rules changed and it was shutdown.
The risk of last minute cancellation from rules changes must be devastating. There were a few venues looking to re-open on 1 Aug (Ronnie Scotts was one) who had the rug pulled from under them one day before - along with some other business types.
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