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COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

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COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Thaskilly123 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:40 pm

Hi All,

I'm a singer by passion and an architect by profession. I had a small musical concert by the end of next week. We have finished all the arrangements required and contacted an audio service to get some equipment rented. But by looking at the current scenario, COVID-19 seems much more dreadful. We are confused now and had spent a lot on this concert. We plan to cancel it and sure will have to face immense loss. But what to do, we are helpless.

I believe life is more important than money. But there are still some colleagues, who criticize me for canceling it. I'm feeling really sad after hearing all this. What do you guys think? I'm the only one who is responsible for all these looses. I'm feeling sad and worried. Share your point of view regarding this.

Thanks!
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:04 pm

We were supposed to start principal photography on our first proper film in May. Because I signed contracts for the second film next year, all that preproduction (script, script advisers, buying props, scenery built, test shoots, auditions - several months' work) is now wasted and lost.

Add to that, all our regular studio bookings are now out of the window. We are 'dark' until August and that is just two days of piano recordings.

C'est la vie!

Live with it!

I shall follow Hugh's sage advice and build another barn! It keeps me off the streets and out of trouble!
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby CS70 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:29 pm

.

I believe life is more important than money. But there are still some colleagues, who criticize me for canceling it. I'm feeling really sad after hearing all this. What do you guys think? I'm the only one who is responsible for all these looses. I'm feeling sad and worried. Share your point of view regarding this.

No matter what decision you take, you will always find someone criticizing you. It’s the fate of whoever is in charge of anything. The only thing to do is finding facts, use your head (especially to avoid mixing reality with wishes) and take the best possible decision under the circumstances.

To go ahead with an event putting a large amount of people in a confined space, knowing what you know now, would be probably not the best decision. If you can still eat and have a roof over your head after canceling, it’s a no brainer.

If it’s any comfort, we’re all facing huge financial losses one way or the other. Money can always be made again (and my guess is that it will, in a few months I think there will be an incredible bonanza - and we’ll come out strengthen by this, with people aware of how much solidarity is important and with a much less wasting society due getting used to work remotely).
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby MOF » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:06 pm

You’ve got the government on your side, no large groups of people are allowed, that’s why all clubs, bars and restaurants are closed.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Forum Admin » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:18 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:Add to that, all our regular studio bookings are now out of the window. We are 'dark' until August and that is just two days of piano recordings.

I shall follow Hugh's sage advice and build another barn! It keeps me off the streets and out of trouble!

Sorry to hear that TRB. What about putting your cameras and studio gear to use and open a YouTube channel and teach folks studio techniques? It'll help build a following and keep your studio's name in front of folks.

Building a barn sounds cool too.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:25 am

I'm still mulling the YouTube idea over - though it's kinda hard without musicians and/or other talent such as someone for VO and ADR. I could do something on the business of running a studio I suppose.

In the meantime - here's something really cheerful wot I wrote -
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

If the UK is following the Italian/Spanish/French C19 model, there will be some 1400 deaths in total by Wednesday next week. If the USA follows the same trend, they will have had 1800 deaths by then.

Those three countries have seen a six-fold increase in total deaths to-date every seven days. The UK so far has seen a ten-fold increase every seven days.

On March 07 it was two deaths, then 21 on the 14th and 233 on the 21st. Right now we are at 433.

Italy is two weeks ahead in infection rates and the figures, therefore, started Feb22nd with two, then 29, 233, 1441 and on the 21st 4825. It is now on 6820.

If I take three dates - 7th, 14th and 21st, the figures for France are 16, 91, 562 and today are 1100. The USA - 19, 57, 301 and 785 today. Spain - 10, 196, 1381 and 3434 today. Every week about six times as many are dead as the week before.

What we do not know for any country is the infection rate, because no one has been able to test an entire population. And because we don't know the overall infection rate, we have no idea what the case fatality rate (CFR) really is. In those countries where the infection has slowed and is more 'mature', it would seem to be roughly 2% (one 50th of all those infected).

The only problem is that it is 2% of those infected several weeks earlier. And death can come after just three weeks from date of infection - or can take up to ten weeks. Death is prolonged as medical staff and patients fight the disease, but anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that six weeks after infection would be the ball-park average time.

The 2% and the six weeks are just what one calls an 'interpolation' which is a nice word for an informed guess! It would be a gross misuse of figures to then take in an interpolation of two other interpolations and come up with a third figure for just how many are infected today.

But if I did do that and multiplied present deaths by 50 to tell me how many were infected six weeks ago in the UK then on the 14th April there were (just an interpolation, remember!) 422 x 50 = 21,100 people already infected.

That cannot mean that six weeks later (i.e. today) there will be some 760,000 people carrying the C19 bug, because many contacts would be reinfections. But half a million seems a likely figure and that implies 10,000 dead in total by the beginning of May.

Maybe we get lucky and it is just 5,000 and maybe we ain't so lucky and it is 15,000 - we shall see!

But then there is that other killer - a recession.

Right now, the world in lockdown. Movies are not being made. Buildings are not being built. Concerts, flights, hotel and restaurant bookings and a thousand other things are being cancelled and governments are borrowing from the future on a grand scale. Central bank interest rates are near zero, but companies are borrowing at far higher rates to cover cash shortfalls as we all are forced to stop spending.

Over the past few weeks, a deep recession has come to be accepted as the inevitable economic price of slowing the advance of C19. On March 24th some of the earliest broad statistical indicators of how deep that recession might be in Western economies arrived, in the monthly purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) published by IHS Markit, a data and research firm. The numbers are staggeringly bad.

The numbers indicate a recession every bit as bad as in the financial crisis of 2007-09, and probably much worse.

The PMIs are compiled from surveys of purchasing managers at 400 companies in each of several countries. They cover manufacturing, services, construction and the whole economy. Managers are asked about a host of things: current and future activity, new orders, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and more. They provide a pretty decent leading indicator of GDP. For each index and sub-index, the magic number is 50: a figure above that suggests that activity is increasing; anything below it points to contraction.

Image
Image

Looking at the above charts shows that a 20-point fall in the PMI for the UK back in 2007-8 was co-incidental with an 8% fall in GDP. That is roughly what the fall is this time already - only this time it has happened almost instantly.

And it is still falling!

In the eurozone, the index plunged from 51.6 to 31.4 in February. That is the lowest it has been since the index was created in 1998. The services index slumped from 52.6 to 28.4, beating the previous dire record of 39.2, set in February 2009. Service-sector jobs are being cut at the fastest rate since May 2009.

The eurozone is by far the hardest hit and the economic effects in the US have yet to be seen and it is far too early to get a clear view. The end is very far from being in sight.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Arpangel » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:32 am

The Red Bladder wrote:I shall follow Hugh's sage advice and build another barn! It keeps me off the streets and out of trouble!

WOT! another one! If you build another barn your place will look like a small industrial estate!

:D
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Forum Admin » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:03 am

These Govt emergency business loan(s) will be a cashflow lifeline, but if you've lost revenue sources from cancelled jobs that will not be coming back 6-12 months down the line (eg. cancelled festivals), coupled with a general downturn in business from COVID-19, plus lost productivity from sending some/all staff home and possibly even shuttering your business premises (eg. High Streets etc), my big concern for businesses that have to go and take out Govt loans is how the heck are they ever going to pay them back?
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 am

Forum Admin wrote:my big concern for businesses that have to go and take out Govt loans is how the heck are they ever going to pay them back?

Er . . . 'not' is my guess! A bit like most student loans lately!

BTW - to the above infection figures - It is to be noted that in those places where the infection rate was higher, the mortality rate was equally higher, as medical facilities had to concentrate on the most viable patients as part of their triage processes.

When the illness was at its worst, the mortality rate was estimated by the Chinese National Health Commission (NHC) at nearly 6% in Wuhan, but at less than 1% elsewhere.

The implication of that is, if we are running at 1% CFR right now, but will hit 5% or more when the infection is at it's peak, then we have not 500,000 running around infecting one another, but more like a million - and the overall death rate in city centres will be far higher!

They also found that when the hospitals were being inundated with fresh cases, the median time from first symptoms to death was just two weeks, so the infection-to-death time would be just three weeks - though that was when the hospitals could hardly cope with the numbers coming in.

The WHO has placed the average CFR at 3%, though after looking at the figures long and hard, I feel it still should be about 2%.

All these variations just go to demonstrate how totally unpredictable the course of this illness is going to be over the coming few weeks.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:02 pm

And just to cheer us all up, the rate of infections and subsequent deaths is accelerating - esp. in the US.

The UK will easily reach the predicted 1400 deaths overall by end of Tuesday - but the US predicted figure of 1800 will be reached today, so the US could have about 5000 deaths in total by Tuesday if the rate continues to accelerate as it has done.

One week later, that figure could be six-times as many.

With every passing day, we get more statistical information and therefore a deeper understanding of what is happening. The one dark and therefore unknown figure is the total infection rate - no country has been able to introduce a comprehensive and thorough testing regime.

One of the problems is that we are right at the beginning of this epidemic. ICU beds are available at the beginning, but they soon fill up and that means death rates increase. That is why in part China has a case fatality rate (CFR) of just 1% outside of Wuhan but about 5% inside Wuhan.

A US city with 1m inhabitants will have about 350 general ICUs suitable for adults. It will not, however, have 350 pulmonologists and nurses specialising in pulmonology so CFRs are inevitably going to rise - which in turn leads to a further acceleration of the total death rate.

The rate of ICUs per million population for Germany is 300, France, Italy and Spain all have shown that they had far too few with just 100 ICUs per million.

England has 74.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Thaskilly123 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:14 pm

Thanks for all your replies. Finally, we have cancelled it and the service( Freeman AV) we contacted is very kind. They didn't even charge from us. We are so grateful to them. Hope everyone is safe. stay home stay safe
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby blinddrew » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:51 pm

Sensible decision and sounds like you're well supported by your AV partner. :thumbup:
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:52 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:If the UK is following the Italian/Spanish/French C19 model, there will be some 1400 deaths in total by Wednesday next week. If the USA follows the same trend, they will have had 1800 deaths by then.

Those three countries have seen a six-fold increase in total deaths to-date every seven days. The UK so far has seen a ten-fold increase every seven days.

On March 07 it was two deaths, then 21 on the 14th and 233 on the 21st. Right now we are at 433.
The news from the UK and the US could hardly be worse. 400 deaths today (now revised down to 381 for some reason) bringing the UK total to over 1800. The US will be at double the predicted figure and could reach 3600 by the end of the day - the infection rates in the US are accelerating.

This is very, very bad news for all of us as it means far more severe measures have to be taken.
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby Hugh Robjohns » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:31 pm

The Red Bladder wrote:The news from the UK ... could hardly be worse. 400 deaths today (now revised down to 381 for some reason) bringing the UK total to over 1800. ...This is very, very bad news for all of us as it means far more severe measures have to be taken.

And previously...

The Red Bladder wrote:C19 will kill a few thousand.... I've just had C19 and it is nothing.
Every year some 10,000 to 20,000 die from the flu in the UK. Where's the panic?

But no! C19 is so serious that we have to close down our travel and tourism industry (10% of GDP) and nearly all car and truck manufacturing in Europe has had to cease (5%) - I could go on! ...

Something of a revised opinion there then, RB? :lolno:

I don't think 'far more severe measures' are required, just a continuance of the existing social distancing/isolation for a few more weeks. It's very early days, but there are some signs now that the numbers of infected might be levelling out, as a result of the isolation tactics. Let's hope so...
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Re: COVID-19 and its impact on music industry

Postby The Red Bladder » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:00 pm

1. I've been eating my words for supper for quite some time!

2. No way are the current (relatively lenient) measures going to be continued if the death toll continues to rise.

3. The US will be the 'Big One'.

4. The real figures are (I have discovered) even worse - the UK only registers deaths in hospitals, so that is at least 20% more deaths that are not being counted (and additional infection points!)

5. I took it seriously when I began number-crunching. Like the old gag about one grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard - the end is not what one might expect!
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